The Numbers are in for Q3 2023

Q3 Market Report Edmonton and Area Real Estate Market

Seasonally as we enter the winter months, real estate prices and the number of sales come down in Edmonton. The third quarter in Edmonton and the greater Edmonton area was positive.  Approximately 13,605 residential properties had sold by the third quarter of 2019 (our last pre-pandemic year). In 2023, year-to-date sales are just over 18,000, even though interest rates range anywhere from 5.5 -7%, in comparison to just over 5% pre-pandemic. You can check out more on historical mortgage rates here.

Even when taking into consideration the pandemic boom years, the number of sales and average prices are comparable. Total year-to-date sales are down about 13% from 2022 or, 18,020 units sold, in comparison to 20,890 sold by the third quarter of 2022. Average prices are down about 4.45% from 2022, from approximately $420K to $401K.

There were 9,541 new listings in Q3 of 2023, followed by 6,599 new sales. Interestingly, sales are up 26% month over month from even September 2022 (and as we remember, 2022 was the largest boom year our market has seen in some time). At this time last year, the market was stifled from interest rate increases; the average high ratio 5 year fixed rate being 6.19%, in comparison to the average big bank posting 5.94% now.

Looking at the sales-to-new-listing ratios, we are comfortably in a sellers market, with relatively low inventory and a higher number of sales. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) classifies a sales-to-listing ratio greater than 55% to signify a seller's market. A ratio of 70% or greater would signify an overheated market. Visit CHMC here to learn more. Compare this to the sales-to-listing ratio of 2022’s Q3 of 51%, and our market looks really strong, even as we head into the colder months.

Breaking the market into segments, the detached housing and townhome market, prices are up from this time last year. However, the average price of all classes is down slightly year over year.

The biggest losers right now end up being apartment condos, down almost 5%, and the average price year to date (YTD) is only down slightly.

Our Economy

International and interprovincial migration are in the headlines lately. Alberta's population has increased by 4.5% alone in the last year, standing at 4,703,772 as of April 1, 2023. During the last 12 months, Alberta welcomed 123,935 net international migrants and saw a net inflow of 56,462 interprovincial migrants. Source here. Consideration should be given to oil prices and a lower unemployment rate of 5.7%. I like that housing starts are up 18% year over year. Hopefully, this is a sign of another prosperous year ahead for our province.

On the Ground

Builders are price-reducing seasonally as they aim to clear their books for year-end. There are substantial cost savings to buying a quick possession spec home right now. Interprovincial migrants continue to purchase businesses and properties. Financially we look very attractive in comparison to our counterparts on the East and West coast.  

Small Business Shout-outs
Stacey with BRX Mortgages deserves a shout-out. Stacey is newer and I have got to know her a bit over the past year. She hustles, creates quality content on social media, has been available to me when I've had questions, and has been able to provide helpful suggestions. I have been doing this a little while now and it's hard for me to change the phenomenal group of professionals I have got to work with over the years, I do hope with the effort Stacry has put in, that she will continue to be rewarded. You can check her out on Instagram HERE, heck check out mine too :) HERE

Oddities in Real Estate

We deal with a lot of money and maybe even more emotions on a day-to-day basis. As such we see some awfully strange behavior. A short list of recent memory

      -     An agent offering much of their commission cash back to secure a client 

-       A brokerage spoofing a condominium complex Facebook page in an effort to try to control the sale and lease listings in the building.

-       A seller listing his home whilst being sued for building on his neighbor’s property

-       A for sale by owner squarely looking at comparable sold listings and still asking for 70K over the market rate of 190K.

-       An agent representing her seller and multiple buyers in a multiple-offer situation on her own listing.

Given someone’s personal circumstances and the amount of money that can be involved in real estate maybe this isn’t so odd. But there certainly is better, and I hope to bring that to you and the people you send my way. 

Personal Note

All of you have been fantastic. In the last little while we have run events at the World Water Park, Love Professional Wrestling, and had Blakes Bakery Pie Delivery for Thanksgiving. I've been meeting with many of you over brunch, dinners, and conversations. I get to see so many people grow and change. I love our individual stories and I am so fortunate that so many of you choose to share those, even in part.

What's with all the events, phone calls, and giveaways? Going out on my own was a risk, and this year has shaped out really well, I would like to keep that going.  All of you have allowed me to serve you,  have recommended me to your friends and family, you’ve engaged with me as a professional and even as a friend. I have discovered through connecting and reconnecting I have been so damn lucky and I would like to work to keep those relationships healthy.  I would like to continue to be thought of as the guy you come to and recommend, to get reliable and meaningful service. By reconnecting, I have realized that I have lost people throughout the years, so if there is something you would like to see, I would rather have an opportunity to grow than watch a relationship quietly walk out the door, lol. 

Until the December mailing or the next lunch, bunch, phone call or client appreciation event. 

Take care :)

And leave a five-star review on Google, would ya? HERE